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Latest infos

Closing prices for 12.07.07


CURRENCIES

MARCH EUROCURRENCY CLOSED AT 146.68
POSITION: Flat
PIVOT POINT: 145.15 stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Neutral as of 12.07.07
OPINION: Buy long above 145.15 stop close only

Sell short below 145.15 stop close only

ENERGIES

JANUARY CRUDE OIL CLOSED AT 88.28
POSITION: Short since 90.62 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 89.82 Buy stop close only*
TREND DIRECTION: Down as of 11.28.07

OPINION:

GRAINS

MARCH CORN CLOSED AT 417.2
POSITION: Long since 398.6 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 407 Sell stop close only*
TREND DIRECTION: Up as of 11.21.07
OPINION: Hold

JAN SOYBEANS CLOSED AT 1119.6
POSITION: Long since 1119.6 market on close

PIVOT POINT: 1094.7 Sell stop close only*
TREND DIRECTION: Up as of 12.07.07
OPINION: Overbought and some caution is warranted

METALS

FEB GOLD CLOSED AT 800.2
POSITION: Long since 800.2 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 799.9 Sell stop close only*
TREND DIRECTION: Up of 12.07.07
OPINION: Hold

SOFTS

MARCH COTTON CLOSED AT 64.55
POSITION: Long since 64.55 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 64.16 Sell stop close only*
TREND DIRECTION: Neutral as of 12.05.07
OPINION: Hold

DEC COFFEE CLOSED AT 134.30
POSITION: Flat
PIVOT POINT: Flat
TREND DIRECTION: Neutral as of 10.02.07
OPINION: None until further notice!

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Closing prices for 11.30.07
CURRENCIES

MARCH EUROCURRENCY CLOSED AT 146.55
POSITION: Short since 146.55 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 148.08 Buy stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Short as of 11.30.07
OPINION: Hold

ENERGIES

JANUARY CRUDE OIL CLOSED AT 88.71
POSITION: Short since 90.62 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 89.84 Buy stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Down as of 11.28.07

OPINION: Hold

GRAINS

MARCH CORN CLOSED AT 401.4
POSITION: Long since 398.6 stop close only
PIVOT POINT: 400.7 Sell stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Up as of 11.21.07
OPINION: Hold

JAN SOYBEANS CLOSED AT 1080
POSITION: Flat

PIVOT POINT: 1090 stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Neutral as of 11.30.07
OPINION: Buy long above 1090 stop close only

Sell short below 1090 stop close only

METALS

FEB GOLD CLOSED AT 789.1
POSITION: Short since 802.3 stop close only
PIVOT POINT: 802 Buy stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Down as of 11.29.07
OPINION: Hold

SOFTS

MARCH COTTON CLOSED AT 63.46
POSITION: Short since 65.04 market on close
PIVOT POINT: 65.04 Buy stop close only
TREND DIRECTION: Down as of 11.29.07
OPINION: Hold

DEC COFFEE CLOSED AT 134.30
POSITION: Flat
PIVOT POINT: Flat
TREND DIRECTION: Neutral as of 10.02.07
OPINION: None until further notice!

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Canada's Third-quarter Growth Rate Beats Expectations

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports | Written by RBC Financial Group | Nov 30 07 16:00 GMT |

Canada's Third-quarter Growth Rate Beats Expectations Canada's economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter, moderately slower than the upwardly revised 3.8% second-quarter pace and downwardly revised first-quarter 3.5% increase. Market forecasters looked for real GDP growth of 2.1% and RBC a 2.5% increase. The monthly numbers showed that growth slowed a bit in September, with output increasing by 0.1% from 0.2% in August. The strength in the third quarter came from the domestic economy once again with consumer spending rising a solid 3% and fixed investment expanding at a 7.6% annual rate. Consumer spending growth, however, came in at about half the second-quarter's robust 5.9% pace and was the slowest in two years. Residential investment rose 5.2%. Business investment also made a strong contribution to growth in the quarter, rising 8.9% on the back of a robust 15.4% increase in spending on machinery and equipment and 2.9% rise in non-residential structures investment. The strong Canadian dollar did not prevent exports from rising in the quarter; they were up at a 2.3% annual rate. At the same time, the currency boosted import demand, with imports surging at an 18.6% annualized pace. As a result, the trade sector trimmed 4.8 percentage points off the quarterly growth rate. Following two quarters of modest inventory building, there was a jump in inventory accumulation in the third quarter, which accounted for 2.9 percentage points of growth. The economy grew at a slightly firmer pace than the Bank of Canada and the street expected. This was, in part, due to a very large increase in inventory building, although, with a strong domestic economy, some of this was probably desired. The combination of inventory stocking and final domestic demand growth supported a decent showing for the economy in the quarter despite the massive 4.8 percentage point drag coming from the trade sector. Final domestic demand has been the mainstay of Canada's economic growth during the past several years and any signs that the momentum is slowing will likely see the Bank of Canada begin to offset the restraint coming from the trade sector. The domestic economy recorded a 4.6% annualized increase in the third quarter, meaning that the Bank has time to assess the impact of softening momentum in the U.S. economic numbers and persistent financial market volatility on the outlook for Canadian growth, which points to the Bank holding to the sidelines at next week's fixed action date. We expect that somewhat slower domestic demand and continuing restraint from net exports will likely see the Bank cut the policy rate in early 2008.

New daily report

Foreign Exchange Market Daily Update

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports | Written by Union Bank of California | Nov 30 07 15:45 GMT |

Foreign Exchange Market Daily Update Continuing to trade in a narrow range ahead of the weekend, the U.S. dollar dipped against the euro, while the yen weakened broadly after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed may have to cut interest rates to help the economy weather turmoil in financial markets. His comments cemented expectations of easier monetary policy, which may help the U.S. economy to avoid a recession. In remarks to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce late yesterday, Bernanke said a resurgence in financial market strains had dimmed the outlook for the U.S. economy. Combined with comments earlier this week from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, who said renewed financial market turmoil could slow the U.S. economy more abruptly than thought, suggesting the central bank is ready to cut rates if necessary at a Dec. 11 policy meeting. Some market watchers are even anticipating a 50 basis point cut. A separate report released today showed tame underlying U.S. inflation pressures in October also strengthened the case for more rate cuts. Euro zone inflation jumped to its highest in six and a half years in November and inflation expectations rose, but economic growth was set to slow, highlighting the European Central Bank's rate dilemma. The European Union's statistics office estimated that consumer prices in the 13 countries using the euro rose 3.0% year-on-year. The ECB, which meets on interest rates next Thursday, wants to keep inflation just below 2% over the medium term but has been in a wait-and-see mode since September to assess the full impact of the global credit crunch on the economy. Economists said the credit squeeze also showed in the European Commission's monthly sentiment survey for November which showed another decline in confidence, led by consumers and the services sector. Household consumption is likely to slow. Retail sales in Germany confirmed that consumers were becoming more gloomy by falling by a much deeper than expected 3.3% in October against September. The British pound strengthened versus the dollar and euro on Friday, as investors pared back bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next week. Analysts said that investors were reining in expectations of monetary easing after digesting comments from the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England who appeared before the Treasury Select Committee yesterday. The Japanese yen remains under pressure, with global stock prices strengthening on the view that more Fed easing could keep the U.S. economy out of recession, investors were eager to wade back into risky carry trades that use cheaply borrowed yen to buy higher-yielding currencies and assets. Despite recent losses, the yen is still up about 4% against the dollar this month on fears that credit market turmoil would push the U.S. economy into recession and slow global growth. The Canadian dollar was slightly firmer against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but investors held off making any big moves ahead of data on Canadian third-quarter economic growth. A string of weak economic data has amplified concerns about the effects of the strong currency and the U.S. economic slowdown on the country's struggling manufacturing sector. Analysts are uncertain of the BoC will cut rates at next Thursday’s meeting or hold off until next month. Lower interest rates would generally make the currency, which has surged around 60 percent since 2002, less attractive to investors. The prospect of interest rate cuts in the U.S. eased concerns about a slowdown in global growth, boosting the high-yielding currencies of Australia and New Zealand. Though both currencies are near 2-months lows their fall has been sidelined for now. Union Bank of California The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Group http://www.uboc.com Disclaimer: This market comment is prepared by Union Bank of California's Global FX &amp Derivatives Department for the general information of its customers. It is based of the most accurate information currently available, but should not considered investment advise or a guarantee of future exchange rate or trends.

New Changes

Foreign Exchange Market Daily Update

Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports | Written by Union Bank of California | Nov 30 07 15:45 GMT |

Foreign Exchange Market Daily Update Continuing to trade in a narrow range ahead of the weekend, the U.S. dollar dipped against the euro, while the yen weakened broadly after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed may have to cut interest rates to help the economy weather turmoil in financial markets. His comments cemented expectations of easier monetary policy, which may help the U.S. economy to avoid a recession. In remarks to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce late yesterday, Bernanke said a resurgence in financial market strains had dimmed the outlook for the U.S. economy. Combined with comments earlier this week from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, who said renewed financial market turmoil could slow the U.S. economy more abruptly than thought, suggesting the central bank is ready to cut rates if necessary at a Dec. 11 policy meeting. Some market watchers are even anticipating a 50 basis point cut. A separate report released today showed tame underlying U.S. inflation pressures in October also strengthened the case for more rate cuts. Euro zone inflation jumped to its highest in six and a half years in November and inflation expectations rose, but economic growth was set to slow, highlighting the European Central Bank's rate dilemma. The European Union's statistics office estimated that consumer prices in the 13 countries using the euro rose 3.0% year-on-year. The ECB, which meets on interest rates next Thursday, wants to keep inflation just below 2% over the medium term but has been in a wait-and-see mode since September to assess the full impact of the global credit crunch on the economy. Economists said the credit squeeze also showed in the European Commission's monthly sentiment survey for November which showed another decline in confidence, led by consumers and the services sector. Household consumption is likely to slow. Retail sales in Germany confirmed that consumers were becoming more gloomy by falling by a much deeper than expected 3.3% in October against September. The British pound strengthened versus the dollar and euro on Friday, as investors pared back bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next week. Analysts said that investors were reining in expectations of monetary easing after digesting comments from the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England who appeared before the Treasury Select Committee yesterday. The Japanese yen remains under pressure, with global stock prices strengthening on the view that more Fed easing could keep the U.S. economy out of recession, investors were eager to wade back into risky carry trades that use cheaply borrowed yen to buy higher-yielding currencies and assets. Despite recent losses, the yen is still up about 4% against the dollar this month on fears that credit market turmoil would push the U.S. economy into recession and slow global growth. The Canadian dollar was slightly firmer against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but investors held off making any big moves ahead of data on Canadian third-quarter economic growth. A string of weak economic data has amplified concerns about the effects of the strong currency and the U.S. economic slowdown on the country's struggling manufacturing sector. Analysts are uncertain of the BoC will cut rates at next Thursday’s meeting or hold off until next month. Lower interest rates would generally make the currency, which has surged around 60 percent since 2002, less attractive to investors. The prospect of interest rate cuts in the U.S. eased concerns about a slowdown in global growth, boosting the high-yielding currencies of Australia and New Zealand. Though both currencies are near 2-months lows their fall has been sidelined for now. Union Bank of California The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Group http://www.uboc.com Disclaimer: This market comment is prepared by Union Bank of California's Global FX &amp Derivatives Department for the general information of its customers. It is based of the most accurate information currently available, but should not considered investment advise or a guarantee of future exchange rate or trends.